Thanksgiving Day is built for Turkey and football. If you're like me, you're going to find a nice spot on the couch to sit down and watch football all day, taking breaks only to grab another plate of food.
Before the action starts at 12:30 pm ET between the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions, be sure to place some bets on Thursday's action. You can find my best bet for each game in this week's edition of the "Road to 272 Bets", but in this article, I'm going to break down a parlay for you to place a small bet on.
This parlay is going to include a bet on a side and a player prop for all three games. Let's dive into it.
Thanksgiving Day NFL ParlayBears +10.5Keenan Allen OVER 4.5 ReceptionsGiants +3.5Tyrone Tracy Jr. OVER 63.5 Rush YardsDolphins +3.5Josh Jacobs Anytime Touchdown
Bears +10.5
Facing a divisional opponent on a short week is always going to be a tough challenge, even for the Detroit Lions, who seem invincible at this point of the season. Not only is that task a tall order to fulfill, but the Bears have been trending in the right direction in recent weeks. Their secondary is one of the best in the NFL and their offense has looked significantly better since moving on from offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron.
I'm selling high on the Lions and taking the 10.5 points with the Bears for the first leg of the parlay.
Keenan Allen OVER 4.5 Receptions
Keenan Allen has seen an increased workload since Thomas Brown took over as offensive coordinator for the Bears. He has seen a combined 23 targets in the last two games, hauling in 13 of them. All we need is for him to record five receptions against the Lions on Thursday for the second leg of our parlay.
Giants +3.5
In a game between two terrible teams, I'm almost always going to lean toward the side that's getting points, especially if the spread is longer than a field goal. It's worth noting the Giants also have some matchup advantages in this game. Not only are they going to be able to run the ball against the Cowboys, but with how banged-up the Dallas defense is, the New York pass rush is going to have a field day in their backfield.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. OVER 63.5 Rush Yards
As I wrote above, the Giants should be able to run the ball successfully against the Cowboys. They rank dead last in opponent rush EPA and 28th in opponent rush success rate. New York would be smart to lean on its running back, Tyrone Tracy Jr., who is averaging an impressive 5.1 yards per carry on the season.
Dolphins +3.5
The Dolphins have been one of the best offensive teams in the NFL since Tua Tagovailoa returned to the lineup, ranking fourth in EPA per play and second in success rate in that time frame. Laying points against this offense is going to be a brave move for any bettor.
I'm also not sold on the play of Jordan Love this season. People expected him to be an MVP candidate, but he now ranks 15th in EPA+CPOE composite and 10th in adjusted EPA per play. Tagovailoa, by comparison, ranks third in both those stats.
I'll take the points with Miami in Green Bay.
Josh Jacobs Anytime Touchdown
While I'm betting on the Dolphins to cover, I'm also going to bet on Packers running back Josh Jacobs to score a touchdown. He's one of the few bellcow running backs in the NFL and with the forecast calling for cold weather, I expect them to lean on Jacobs early and often in this game. He's bound to find the end zone at least once, which makes for the first final leg of this Turkey Day parlay.
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