Before the introduction of the NBA’s in-season tournament, Christmas Day was the league’s primary early-season showcase. Even with the tournament in Las Vegas earlier this month, the holiday is still a big basketball draw with 10 of the top teams in the NBA taking the court all day long.
This year, the winners of the last five MVPs are all in action and a historic rivalry takes center stage when the Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers face off in Los Angeles. Below you’ll find betting information and breakdowns for all five games.
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Milwaukee Bucks vs. New York Knicks Odds and Predictions
Best Bet: Over 224.5 (-110)
Spread: Bucks -3.5 (-110) | Knicks +3.5 (-118)
Moneyline: MIL (-152) | NYK (+120)
Total: 224.5 — Over (-118) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Monday, Dec. 25 | 12 p.m. ET | ESPN
The Bucks (20–7) face the Knicks (16–11) for the fourth time this season on Christmas Day. Milwaukee won the first two meetings at home 110–95 in early November and 146–122 earlier this month in the in-season tournament quarterfinals. The third matchup of the season is scheduled for Saturday at Madison Square Garden and the teams will meet just two days later to kick off Christmas NBA action. That’s New York’s only other game before the holiday, though the Bucks host the Magic on Thursday.
Only the Pacers average more points per game than Milwaukee (124.7), which has one of the highest over hit rates in the league (19–8). The Knicks’ slow pace brings down their overall scoring average (114.7) but this is a top-10 team by offensive rating with Jalen Brunson at the helm and the over also hits more often than not (15–12). Keep an eye on the status of Giannis Antetokounmpo (foot) as Monday approaches, but the over should be a safe bet — this is a very pedestrian number to clear by the Bucks’ standards.
Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets Odds and Predictions
Best Bet: Nuggets -4.5 (-110)
Spread: Warriors +4.5 (-105) | Nuggets -4.5 (-118)
Moneyline: GSW (+175) | DEN (-222)
Total: 230.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-118)
Game Info: Monday, Dec. 25 | 2:30 p.m. ET | ABC, ESPN
The Nuggets (19–10) barely beat the Warriors (13–14) the first time these teams played earlier in the year. Nikola Jokić recorded one of his league-best 10 triple-doubles in that 108–105 victory at Ball Arena, where Denver is 11–2 this season. Conversely, Golden State is just 6–8 on the road. The Nuggets continue their road trip this weekend in Brooklyn on Friday and Charlotte on Saturday before returning home to host the Warriors, who host the Wizards on Friday and the Trail Blazers on Saturday.
Denver has not been as dominant this year as it was in 2022-23 and Golden State has taken a step back as well, especially without Draymond Green. Despite their sub-.500 road record, Warriors have a sound 8–6 record against the spread when they’re away. However, look for Jokić and the Nuggets to step up and make a statement on a national stage against Golden State with the team’s top defender suspended.
Boston Celtics vs. Los Angeles Lakers Odds and Predictions
Best Bet: Under 237.5 (-110)
Spread: Celtics -1.5 (-118) | Lakers +1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: BOS (-133) | LAL (+105)
Total: 237.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-118)
Game Info: Monday, Dec. 25 | 5:30 p.m. ET | ABC, ESPN
The Celtics (21–6) and Lakers (15–13) haven’t met on Christmas since 2008. This is the first meeting of the year between the historic rivals and Boston is a road favorite at crypto.com Arena with Los Angeles in the midst of a slump following its in-season tournament win. The Celtics’ West Coast road trip continues Saturday against the Clippers while the Lakers are on the road Thursday against Western-Conference leading Minnesota and travel to Oklahoma City on Thursday before returning home.
Between LeBron James, Jayson Tatum, Anthony Davis and Jaylen Brown, the expectation in this game is plenty of points and it has the highest over/under of the holiday. However, Boston and L.A. are both top 10 by defensive rating and have a combined 27–29 over/under record. The C’s did just put up 144 points on Sacramento, but the Lakers are sure to put up more of a fight on defense in what should be a tight game.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat Odds and Predictions
Best Bet: 76ers +1.5 (-110)
Spread: 76ers +1.5 (-110) | Heat -1.5 (-118)
Moneyline: PHI (+100) | MIA (-125)
Total: 218.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-118)
Game Info: Monday, Dec. 25 | 8 p.m. ET | ESPN
The Heat (16–12) host the 76ers (19–8) in the first matchup of the year between the two Eastern Conference contenders. Philadelphia is one of the hottest teams in the NBA, having won seven of its last eight games. Miami isn’t on a streak like that, but the return of Tyler Herro is a shot in the arm for a middling offense. The Heat host the Hawks on Friday before Monday’s matchup with the 76ers, who play the Raptors the same night.
Miami hasn’t been good to bettors this year with a 12–16 mark. Philly, on the other hand, is 19–8, the second-best record in the NBA, and 8–4 on the road. Strangely, Miami’s ATS record at home is even worse: 3–10. For that reason, backing reigning MVP Joel Embiid against Jimmy Butler, a former 76er, feels like the best play against the Heat. However, Miami’s 11–2 record on Christmas is by far the best in the league and they’ve won eight in a row on the holiday.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns Odds and Predictions
Best Bet: Over 226.5 (-110)
Spread: Mavericks +4.5 (-118) | Suns -4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: DAL (+145) | PHX (-188)
Total: 226.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Monday, Dec. 25 | 10:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
There’s no love lost between Dallas (16–11) and Phoenix (14–13), two teams that met in a heated seven-game playoff series two seasons back. Both teams are beat up heading into the holiday — Bradley Beal is back on the injury report for the Suns while the Mavericks are dealing with injuries to Kyrie Irving, Josh Green and Dereck Lively II. Dallas still has games against the Rockets on the road and Spurs at home before Monday while Phoenix is in Sacramento on Sunday.
With offensive talents like Luka Dončić, Kevin Durant and Devin Booker taking the floor, this feels like an easy over. The Mavericks have an 18–9 over/under record and the Suns are 16–11. Both offenses rank in the top half of the league in offensive rating and Dallas has a bottom 10 defensive rating. It’s the first matchup this year between these two Western Conference foes, but the last time they met they combined to score more than 250 total points as Durant and Dončić poured in more than 30 points each.
