With only a few weeks left of the college football regular season, the pressure is on to perform not just for teams, but also our two pickers in a race to 40 winners against the spread.
Both Reed Wallach and Pat Forde are hitting at over 50% on their five picks per week this season as the two are in the final quarter of a season long contest. While teams are polishing their respective resumes to gear up for the College Football Playoff, Reed will look to hold onto a late lead over an in-form Pat.
Get each pickers five selections below, with the action starting on Friday night.
College Football Picks Against the Spread for Week 12
UCLA vs. Washington Prediction and Pick
Pick: UCLA +3.5
The Bruins were an easy cover (and outright winner) last week against Iowa, and I like them getting points again here. UCLA has turned the corner under Deshaun Foster with its current three-game winning streak, and the Bruins are facing a tired team. Washington is turning around from a Saturday night game at Penn State, followed by an all-night flight home, and now playing on Friday. The Big Ten office did the Huskies no favors here.
Utah vs. Colorado Prediction and Pick
Pick: Colorado -10.5
Pretty big number, but the Buffaloes have been a great second-half team this season, often pulling away from close games. Colorado has outscored every opponent after halftime all year. And the assumption here is that a reeling Utah team fired a big bullet in its rivalry game against BYU and might not have much juice for a 10 a.m. local kickoff in a rowdy Folsom Field environment.
Michigan State vs. Illinois Prediction and Pick
Pick: Illinois -2.5
When in doubt – and in need of a fifth pick – go with the home team that takes better care of the ball. It doesn't hut that this is the final home game for some the of Illinois players who have helped resurrect the program the past three seasons.
Virginia vs. Notre Dame Prediction and Pick
Pick: Notre Dame -22.5
The Fighting Irish are a hot team in search of a playoff spot and playing at home for the last time in the regular season – they have every motivation to play well and keep their foot on the gas for 60 minutes. Tony Elliott has solidified his job standing this season, but his Cavaliers might be outmanned here.
Tennessee vs. Georgia Prediction and Pick
Pick: Tennessee +9.5
The Bulldogs cannot run the ball. Quarterback Carson Beck is struggling to protect the ball, with 10 turnovers in the last four games. And the Volunteers’ defense is outstanding. Playing between the hedges for the first time since Oct. 12 and with a feral crowd to boost them, the ‘Dogs may well win. But it’s going to be close and low-scoring – closer than the spread.
Reed's Picks Against the Spread
Reed's Wins: 32
Houston vs. Arizona Prediction and Pick
Pick: Houston +2
Talk about two teams trending in opposite directions.
Houston has won three of four under first-year head coach Willie Fritz, who has this defense operating at a high level (top 40 in havoc rate) and unlocking a potent ground game around Louisiana transfer quarterback Zeon Chriss.
Meanwhile, Arizona’s first-year head coach Brent Brennahan isn’t enjoying the same success. The Wildcats have dropped five straight in Big 12 play as the key cogs in this offense have struggled to grasp the new offense.
The defense has also suffered, bottom third in the country in EPA/Rush, which means it will have a hard time keeping Chriss and the Cougars off the sidelines.
I’m going to back the better team, even on the road.
Tulane vs. Navy Prediction and Pick
Pick: Tulane -6.5
Tulane is the best team in the Group of Five, in my opinion, and the team gets an opportunity to showcase its upside on Saturday against a Navy team trending in the wrong direction.
The Midshipmen have dropped two of three, and in the team’s win last week against South Florida, was slightly outgained despite the 28-7 scoreline.
Navy has faced two offenses inside the top 50 nationally in EPA/Play, Notre Dame and Memphis, allowing 51 and 44, respectively. The Green Wave has a ton of firepower on offense, ranking ninth in EPA/Play I envision this game getting away from the Middies quickly.
These two teams are in different classes, and while Navy was a good story, Tulane is about to be a bigger one down the stretch of the season.
Arizona State vs. Kansas State Prediction and Pick
Pick: Arizona State +9
Arizona State continues to be one of the great bets in college football this season, 7-2 against the number on the season, while Kansas State continues to be an overrated outfit in a crowded Big 12.
While the Sun Devils were fortunate to pull out a win against UCF at home last week, needing a pair of defense and special team scores to stay in the conference title race, the team did so without its lead running back Cam Skattebo, who is questionable for this one.
Skattebo helps, but this is an Arizona State team that should be able to test a shaky Kansas State pass defense that is below average in coverage grading and outside the top 100 in pass rush grading, per Pro Football Focus.
Sam Leavitt continues to keep the ball out of harm's way, he has three turnover-worthy plays on the season, and if the team gets Skattebo back, he can be live for an upset against a Kansas State team that has been overrated for much of this season.
Further, don’t sleep on Avery Johnson, who continues to be shaky as a passer. The ASU defense is elite against the run, top 25 in EPA/Rush. If the team forces obvious passing situations for Johnson, this game can be tight throughout.
Cincinnati vs. Iowa State Prediction and Pick
Pick: Cincinnati +9
Another fade of a Big 12 favorite!
Cincinnati was on the wrong end of two defensive scores against West Virginia at home, and I’m looking to play on the Bearcats in Ames against a spiraling Iowa State team that has dropped two in a row.
The Cyclones don’t profile as a good favorite at all with its inability to stop the run. Iowa State is outside the top 100 in yards per carry allowed and tackling, which means that the Bearcats should be able to move the ball with relative ease, 47th in yards per carry allowed.
It’s never fun fading Iowa State at home in a night game, but I believe there is more to this slide than just some bad variance for Iowa State, and this feels like a massive downgrade for the Bearcats after some poor variance against West Virginia.
Washington State vs. New Mexico Prediction and Pick
Pick: New Mexico +12.5
According to Pro Football Focus, Washington State is the worst tackling team in the country, and I don’t believe the Cougars can continue to perform this way on defense and cover double-digit spreads.
The team will travel to Albuquerque to face New Mexico, who is a top flight offense, ranking 24th in EPA/Play and sixth in yards per play. Washington State hasn’t faced too many offenses with this firepower, only two inside the top 50 in Boise State and San Jose State in which the team allowed 45 and 52 points, respectively.
It’s a big number, and I can’t trust Washington State to blow out a capable offense like the Lobos in what should be an entertaining, and back-and-forth affair.
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